It’s quarter finals day of the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France and I thought I’d write a post on the completed pools stages and share my thoughts.

Pool A

France: The French have played some magnificent rugby particularly against New Zealand and Italy making both sides look far lesser than they’re capable of. The skill, determination and flair are all present but what remains is their instability. The match against Uruguay demonstrated this when they struggled not only to win but failed to get a bonus point victory. Meanwhile, the All Blacks and the Azzurri got the job done more convincingly.

New Zealand: How the mighty All Blacks were humbled by Les Bleus on the opening match. But they are the All Blacks and they came back and put in damning performances against the rest of the pool. Against Italy, they took the World Number 11 and made them look like part-timers. Uruguay and Namibia were mere training exercises. France were a blip but the All Blacks are in fighting shape once again.

Italy: The Azzurri have been showing promising signs of progress over the last 2-4 years but France and New Zealand have reduced them to amateur wannabes this World Cup. The side that’s threatened to overturn, and sometimes beat, the French was nowhere to be seen and has likely retreated off into some vineyard. Will they be seen again? We’ll find out in next year’s Six Nations.

Uruguay: Showed some real heart and grit against overpowered opposition yet struggled to beat Namibia. Maybe a case of throwing too much at the big games and not focusing on the realistic prospect of victory against a peer. They showed potential to be on a similar level to their South American brothers, Argentina, in a decade or so. Let’s see.

Namibia: Like Uruguay, they showed a lot of heart and spirit but didn’t have as much of the grit or will to fight against superior opposition in the same way. Unlike Uruguay, they did keep some energy for their main game and damned near won but Uruguayan grit ensured they faltered. Still playing basic rugby with no signs of progress from the last World Cup.

Pool B – The Pool of Death

Ireland: What can be said about the Irish at this point? They kept their cool against the Springboks, devastated Romania, outplayed Tonga and choked out Scotland. They have strategies and tactics for every style of play and back that up with skill, discipline and talent. World Number One for a reason. World Champions? Only Ireland can stop themselves at this point.

South Africa: Acting like Ireland’s badly behaved brother at this point. The Springboks have skill and talent in abundance. They play with a lot of belief because they’ve delivered so many times against tough opponents. But unlike the Irish, they see no problem in playing dirty which cost them victory in this pool. That and their inability to kick their penalties. If they keep it up, tomorrow will be their last day in this World Cup.

Scotland: I could write a whole blog on my country about how the timing of the draw had given us a deeply improbable task. Having three of the world’s top five in one pool in any sport’s World Cup is always going to look unfair but should have also given fans the prospect of some exhilarating matches. It didn’t. Well, not when Scotland were playing. Gregor Townsend should have known that Ireland and South Africa would stamp us out and prevent us playing our game, which they know to be dangerous. Unfortunately, Scotland had no plan on what to do against South Africa and we were snuffed out scoring a measly three points. Against Ireland, we played our game for twenty minutes and got two converted tries. Imagine if we played for the whole eighty against both? A lot of positives but if Scotland are going to move beyond number five, we need to come up with ways to play against teams that will shut us down. Why didn’t Finn Russell precede George Ford and just keep kicking drop goals against the Springboks when he saw it was a stalemate? One of many questions I think will go unanswered.

Tonga: Entertaining. Passionate. Fired-up. Physically tough. Tonga, like their Pacific Island brothers, love nothing more than running into you. Unfortunately, they haven’t added much else to their game beyond that. They are extremely good at mowing down the opposition but that’s no good when the opposition is extremely good at avoiding you. As entertaining as it is watching fifteen big men knock a lot of other men down, it’s one-dimensional. Tonga have traditionally lacked tactics, strategy and discipline which have stunted them. No change here.

Romania: Never gave up but were hopelessly outmatched and outgunned in this pool.

Pool C

Wales – The Welsh have been on a downward trajectory the last few years but, for this World Cup, they seem to have regained their mojo. Against Fiji, they played the kind of fast and flowing rugby they’d become synonymous for albeit without the same level of skill and discipline which damned near cost them them game if it weren’t for Fiji’s lower skill and discipline levels. Not much else can be said about Wales since they had no real competition. This afternoon will be the first real test.

Fiji – Like Tonga, only more precise and with more variety to their game. Heavily entertaining to watch and have come here vastly improved. However, despite throwing everything at Wales, they cost themselves the game; they only just beat a poor Australia and were beaten by the poorest team in the pool, Portugal. The lack of discipline has manifested in inconsistency. They have the skills, the talent and the motivation to win but they are their own worst enemy. Second in a weak pool isn’t much to shout about.

Australia – Never have I seen the Wallabies in such dire straits. They look like they’ve forgotten how to play one of their national sports. A lot of blame has been placed on Eddie Jones’ shoulders but he’s barely in the door. Meanwhile, the Australian government has pulled a lot of sports funding over the years meaning there’s not as much state investment going to rugby. Its impact is evident and I fear the Wallabies downward spiral may have just begun unless something miraculous happens.

Portugal – Unlike Australia, Portugal has been investing in taking rugby out of its universities and into the public. Their performance this World Cup has shown they’ve laid a solid foundation upon which to build. Unlike the other members of this pool, Portugal can use this as a platform to test the fruits of their labours with no pressure of expectation. And my, how they delivered. Wales weren’t allowed to run all over them; Georgia couldn’t edge them out; Australia failed to obliterate them; and Fiji couldn’t beat them. Portugal have arguably been the biggest surprise and most improved of the lower-ranked teams this World Cup. I look forward to seeing them in 2027.

Georgia – At this point in their development, expectations are growing. A few years ago, there were demands to have Georgia replace Italy in the Six Nations by the virtue of their performances against the Azzurri. At the time, they’d have deserved a chance but now, I’m not so sure. The weakest team in the weakest pool is no advertisement of progress. Georgia will have to lay low and do some serious development before they open their mouths about the Six Nations again.

Pool D

England: Like Wales, they seem to have found some of their mojo again but there’s been nothing in this side that says they deserve to be in a Quarter Final. Again, the timing of the draw has given England this chance of a fairly easy path to a semi-final. They have shown no drive to win but their discipline and sheer stubbornness has seen them top this group. If they get to the Semi-Finals, they will be blown out the water as they are lacking in every other area just now.

Argentina: I seriously thought Los Pumas would have topped this group given the state of the opposition. I was wrong. Lacklustre against a lacklustre England and allowing themselves to be beaten by the boot of George Ford, Argentina have not been all that convincing save for being the only team to actually whip Chile where the others didn’t. They struggled against Samoa and their last game against Japan looked like a game of club rugby on a Sunday afternoon. Which it was. Against Wales, they will have to tap into older form if they are to progress.

Japan: The Cherry Blossoms have not been in full bloom this World Cup. They’ve gone backwards somewhat from their surprise win over the Springboks in 2015 to topping their group in 2019, Japan just haven’t been able to put together a convincing display in a pool of teams that haven’t been convincing. Once, they were a breath of fresh air. Now, I think Japan needs to seriously consider how they want to move forward as a rugby nation.

Samoa: Too many similarities with these Pacific Islanders. Almost beat Argentina, England and Japan but their lack of discipline and variety cost them. Gave Chile too many points when they should have run all over them.

Chile: South America’s Namibia this World Cup. I actually forgot they were in it, they made that much of an impression.

Quarter Finals

In less than an hour, Wales will take on Argentina in the first Quarter Final and this is where the nature of the draw will highlight the issues with not only the draw but the current state of World Rugby. We have four teams that are not playing anywhere near their capabilities and we have four that that are operating at near-maximum capacity. Unfortunately, the first four are in two Quarter Finals together and the other four make up the two Quarter Finals. This will make the Semi-Finals something of a farce if the weaker teams don’t show up which would then mean the Final should be an occasion.

This is how I see each of the next four games:

QF1: Wales v Argentina – An Actual Quarter Final

QF2: Ireland v New Zealand – A World Cup Final

QF3: England v Fiji – A Summer Test

QF4: France v South Africa – A World Cup Final

Only one of these fixtures should be taking place at this stage in the tournament. One shouldn’t be happening at all and the other two should be the last game of the tournament.

By making the selection back in 2020 using 2019 rankings, World Rugby allowed too much time to pass for change to happen. And change did happen. Ireland became Number One , Scotland became Number Five whilst England, Australia, Wales and New Zealand took tumbles.

Had the draw been done a year ago, the top 12 would have been spread like this:

Pool A – France, England and Australia

Pool B – Ireland, Scotland and Japan

Pool C – South Africa, Wales and Samoa

Pool D – New Zealand, Argentina and Fiji

Using the IRB World Rankings from 3rd October 2022, already the pools are more balanced and would have given us more exciting games as the lower ranked teams would raised their game to take on the higher ranked ones. While the teams that would top each pool would be clear, the second team to qualify would not be so clear as the mid-ranked teams would have to ensure they held off the lower-ranked ones who would be more determined to try and win.

By holding the draw so soon after the last World Cup, we’ve been given a tournament that’s delivered little in the way of spectacle.

Moving to the Quarter Finals, I think we’re going to get two types of game; QF’s 1 and 3 will be fast flowing, frantic, high-scoring and entertaining whilst QF’s 2 and 4 will be tough, low-scoring, physical and serious.

We will lose two worthy competitors whilst two mediocre teams get to progress to a Semi-Final. It’s unfair and has denied the teams and spectators any kind of dazzling spectacle.

As to who I think will win each game:

QF1 – As much I’d love my Celtic brothers to win, I think Los Pumas may edge them out.

QF2 – I’d love both to to win but that’s not possible. I think there’ll be so little in it but Ireland will just sneak the win.

QF3 – Neither deserve to be here but on virtue of their pool games, I’d like Fiji to win but reckon English discipline will win out.

QF4 – Like QF2, we have two very similar teams. Both rightfully deserving of a place in the Final but I suspect the Springbok’s inability to kick a penalty will be seized by French gallantry.

And with minutes to go, let the games begin.